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Grain Storage or Sell Now? Financial Considerations for Missouri Farmers
September 11, 2025
As Missouri farmers prepare for the 2025 harvest, many face a familiar yet increasingly complicated question: Should I store my grain or sell it right away? With fluctuating market prices, rising input costs, and limited storage capacity, this decision could significantly affect your bottom line.
At Peoples Savings Bank, we want to help you weigh the pros and cons so you can make the best call for your farm.
The Current Landscape in Missouri Agriculture
Before making your decision, it’s good to understand what’s going on in the markets. According to the 2025 FAPRI Baseline Outlook, farm finances are being shaped by two competing storylines: lower returns for major crops and record-high returns in the cattle sector. Let’s take a closer look.
Key Takeaways from the 2025 FAPRI Outlook
- Net farm income: Fell by $43 billion nationally between 2022 and 2024 as crop returns dropped from recent highs. Federal program payments (ARA) will temporarily boost 2025 income, but declines are projected again in 2026.
- Corn: Prices peaked at $6.54 per bushel in 2022/23 but are projected to average $4.23 for the 2025 crop. Acreage is expected to shift back toward corn in 2025.
- Soybeans: Fell from $14.20 per bushel in 2022/23 to a projected $10.02 per bushel in 2025/26.
- Wheat: Peaked at $8.83 per bushel in 2022/23 but is projected to average $5.50 per bushel in 2025/26.
- Other crops: Cotton, rice, sorghum, and others have also seen sharp price declines compared to recent peaks.
- Cattle: The beef cow herd continues to shrink, driving record cattle prices and strong returns for cow-calf producers, though this cycle is projected to turn after 2027.
- Livestock and poultry: Lower feed costs are improving profitability for pork, poultry, and dairy. Egg prices remain volatile due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).
- Macro conditions: U.S. economic growth is slowing, interest rates are expected to decline, and uncertainty around trade policy and domestic programs remains unusually high.
Grain Storage Pressures in Missouri
- Record harvests and shrinking commercial capacity are creating a storage squeeze across the Midwest.
- Many elevators are limiting or requiring grain to be priced before delivery to guarantee space.
- Farmers without adequate on-farm bins may face higher storage costs or fewer delivery options.
High Costs and Risk Factors to Consider
- Fertilizer, fuel, and labor costs remain elevated compared to pre-2020 levels.
- Interest rates, though projected to ease in 2025, still raise the cost of financing storage or operating loans.
- Weather risks, including late planting, drought, and storm events, add more uncertainty to both yields and marketing outcomes.
Together, these expenses and risks make it essential for farmers to run the numbers carefully when weighing storage versus selling.
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Option 1: Sell Now
Pros
- Immediate cash flow: Getting money in hand now can help cover operating costs, input supplies, or debt payments.
- Lower risk: You avoid storage risks like spoilage, moisture loss, pest damage, or unexpected weather events.
- Avoid costs: No need to pay for storage space, maintenance, insurance, drying, or monitoring quality.
Cons
- Lower prices: Harvest-time prices are often the lowest of the year due to supply surges.
- Missed opportunities: You give up flexibility to capture later price gains or basis improvements.
- Limited leverage: No stored grain to use in negotiations or contracting strategies.
Option 2: Store Grain
Pros
- Potential for higher prices: As the marketing year goes on, prices sometimes rise. This is especially true if demand picks up or global supply tightens.
- Basis and carry strategies: You can sometimes capture better pricing or favorable basis as the market calms down.
- Operational benefits: Having on-farm bins can speed up harvest since you aren’t as dependent on elevator schedules. You may control more of the timing.
- Strategic marketing tools: Tools like hedge-to-arrive contracts or forward contracts can help leverage stored grain.
Cons
- Upfront and ongoing costs: Building or renting storage, insurance, drying, electricity for aeration, monitoring, maintenance. These are real expenses. For example, a 30,000-bushel bin may cost ~$70,000—that’s about $2.30 per bushel just for storage structure.
- Interest and opportunity costs: If you finance storage or use capital that could be elsewhere, that cost adds up. Also, while the grain sits, you’re missing out on cash or investment returns.
- Quality risk: Grain stored improperly can lose moisture, weight, or degrade in quality. That can reduce your price.
- Storage squeeze: If many farmers are storing at once, elevator and commercial storage capacity may be tight, increasing costs or reducing availability. Elevated interest rates make storage more expensive.
Smart Financial Strategy Tips for Your Farm
These are tools and tactics that can help you manage risk and make a more informed decision:
- Know your break-even price: Calculate all your costs, including storage, interest, handling fees, and then figure out how high prices have to go to cover those before you profit.
- Use carry in futures markets: If futures contracts for delivery months beyond harvest are priced higher (carry), it might be worth waiting.
- Hedge-to-arrive (HTA) or forward contracts: These allow you to lock in parts of price now while leaving basis or future components flexible.
- Watch basis trends locally: Basis (difference between local cash price and futures or delivery price) can change with supply, demand, and logistics. Sometimes price improvements from basis are more than what futures alone give.
- Check interest rates and financing costs: If you need a loan or line of credit to hold grain, factor in how much interest you’ll pay, and compare that to expected gains.
- Estimate insurance and maintenance: Include ongoing storage costs and losses from quality drop in your decision models.
Peoples Savings Bank offers agricultural loans and lines of credit tailored to Missouri farmers’ needs. It’s easy to get help. Apply for an ag loan online or contact our local ag lending team for help today.
How Peoples Savings Bank Can Help
At PSB, we understand that every farm is different.
Whether you’re:
- Expanding storage capacity
- Covering operating expenses
- Purchasing new equipment
- Planning land improvements
…our ag lending team offers tools and support tailored to your operation’s needs.
Here’s how we can help:
- Agricultural loans & lines of credit: For operating costs, bin construction or repairs, or other storage-related investments.
- Flexible payment schedules: To help you match cash flow, especially during harvest season.
- Advisory support: We can help you run the numbers: storage costs, break-even prices, and profit forecasts, so you make a choice that works for you.
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What Farmers Should Ask Before Deciding
To help clarify your choice, ask yourself:
- What are my storage costs per bushel? (structure, insurance, maintenance, drying, interest)
- Can I afford to tie up cash? Do I have enough liquidity if I wait to sell?
- What are current basis and futures prices? Are they favorable if I sell later?
- How reliable is my storage? (Equipment, moisture control, pest control, etc.)
- What’s my forecast for market demand, weather, and inflation?
- How long am I planning to hold? Short-term storage is different than long-term hold.
Need help deciding?
Contact One of Our Ag Loan Experts
LET’s PLAN YOUR NEXT STEP Together
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to the “store or sell” question. For some, selling at harvest secures critical cash flow and avoids risk. For others, storing can open the door to stronger pricing and marketing flexibility, if costs and risks are managed properly.
The best choice is the one that matches your farm’s resources, market outlook, and financial goals.
Ready to run the numbers or talk through your options? Contact the ag lending team at Peoples Savings Bank to get started today.